How Has Patrick Mahomes Responded To Being An Underdog With Chiefs?

How Has Patrick Mahomes Responded To Being An Underdog With Chiefs?
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

It’s not often that the Kansas City Chiefs have been NFL betting underdogs since the Patrick Mahomes era began in the final week of the 2017 regular season.

But that’s the scenario facing the team and its star quarterback going into Super Bowl 57.

Kansas City was briefly an underdog going into January's AFC Championship Game against Cincinnati, probably because of questions about Mahomes' health after the star quarterback injured his right ankle the previous week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. But as the Chiefs-Bengals game got closer and it became apparent that Mahomes was good to go, the betting lines shifted back to Kansas City's favor and the Chiefs closed as a 2-point favorite -- a spread they covered with a 23-20 victory over Cincinnati. 

But this Sunday, Mahomes will be an underdog for the first time ever in a playoff game when the Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles for the Vince Lombardi Trophy at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

DraftKings Sportsbook Kansas lists the Chiefs as a 1.5-point underdog, as of Wednesday morning, against the Eagles.

Here's how Mahomes has fared as an underdog during his career.

Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Must be 21+ to participate & present in KS. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-522-4700 . Visit for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in NY, NV, or Puerto Rico.

How Kansas City Chiefs Fared as Underdog With Patrick Mahomes Starting

Date, OpponentSpreadResultMahomes stats
Dec. 31, 2017 at Broncos Denver -3 KC won 27-24 22-35, 284 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
Sept. 9, 2018 at Chargers Los Angeles -3.5 KC won 38-28 15-27, 256 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
Sept. 16, 2018 at Steelers Pittsburgh -4.5 KC won 42-37 23-28, 326 yds, 6 TD, 0 INT
Oct. 14, 2018 at Patriots New England -3.5 KC lost 43-40 23-36, 352 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
Nov. 19, 2018 at Rams Los Angeles -3 KC lost 54-51 33-46, 478 yds, 6 TD, 3 INT
Dec. 8, 2019 at Patriots New England -3 KC won 23-16 26-40, 283 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Sept. 28, 2020 at Ravens Baltimore -3.5 KC won 34-20 31-42, 385 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
Oct. 2, 2022 at Buccaneers Tampa Bay -1 KC won 41-31 23-37, 249 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Oct. 16, 2022 vs. Bills Buffalo -2.5 KC lost 24-20 25-40, 338 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

Mahomes Tough To Beat as an Underdog

This is just the third Chiefs playoff game since legal sports betting in Kansas launched last fall. In the first one, the Chiefs beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20 in the AFC Divisional Round but failed to cover the 9-point spread. And it's no surprise that two-time league MVP Mahomes' performance has a pretty direct outcome on the Chiefs playoff chances.

Overall, the Chiefs are 7-1-1 as an underdog with Mahomes under center and have a 6-3 straight-up record in those contests.

How good has Mahomes been as an underdog? The only two times in his career when he has passed for six touchdowns in a game both came when the oddsmakers favored Kansas City’s opponent.

The only time the Chiefs haven’t covered as an underdog with Mahomes was earlier this season, when the Buffalo Bills went to Kansas City and pulled out a 24-20 victory as a 2.5-point road favorite at Kansas sports betting apps. That was also the only time in his career that Mahomes has been a home underdog at Arrowhead Stadium. 

In those nine contests with Kansas City as an underdog and Mahomes starting, the star quarterback has averaged 328 passing yards with 30 passing touchdowns against just 10 interceptions.

In 13 career playoff games under Mahomes, the Chiefs are 8-5 against the spread and are 10-3 straight up in a moneyline bet. In those games, Mahomes averages 300 passing yards per game with 32 passing touchdowns, five rushing scores and only seven interceptions.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl Betting Breakdown

The Chiefs are a +105 moneyline bet against the Eagles at Caesars Sportsbook Kansas for Sunday's game.

Caesars also lists Mahomes at +130 in Super Bowl 57 MVP betting, almost dead even with Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (+125). Nobody else is close on the odds board; Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is third at +1000.

That wager and hundreds of other Chiefs Super Bowl prop betting options are available, as that aspect of putting down action on the big game continues to grow.

Some of the dizzying array of props available include scoring by half and by quarter, the outcome of the coin toss, touchdown scorers, exact outcome of the game and many more.

For a more conventional bet, PointsBet Kansas Sportsbook lists the over/under at 50.5. In the past 10 Super Bowls, the average total number of points scored has been 48.8.

The Chiefs are appearing in the Super Bowl for the third time in four years and the fifth time in franchise history. But this is the first year in which Kansas residents can place a legal wager on their team in the big game from their phones, laptops or desktop computers (or at one of four physical casinos in the state) without having to go all the way to Las Vegas.

The best Kansas sportsbook promotions for the Super Bowl and all other sporting events are at BetKansas. So stay with us for more big wagering events such as March Madness, where the Kansas State Wildcats and defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks are candidates to make deep runs in the men's NCAA Basketball Tournament.



Shelby Dermer

Shelby Dermer is a reporter for Shelby has been a sports reporter for the Cincinnati Enquirer for the last five years and now lends his expertise to the Kansas sports betting market. He grew up in Waynesville, Ohio, and graduated from Ohio University.

Cited by leading media organizations, such as: