NFL Franchise Tag: Will L’Jarius Sneed Be Worth It?

NFL Franchise Tag: Will L’Jarius Sneed Be Worth It?
Fact Checked by Michael Peters

One of the league’s best shutdown cornerbacks will not hit the NFL free agent market next week, as the Kansas City Chiefs decided to use their franchise tag on fifth-year veteran L’Jarius Sneed, setting the stage for a boom-or-bust season for the 27-year-old out of Louisiana Tech.

Sneed played a key role in the Chiefs’ consecutive Super Bowl titles, with five interceptions and an approximate value of 12 across those two seasons.

With an eye toward Kansas online sports betting on the NFL next season and utilizing Pro-Football-Reference.com, BetKansas.com calculated the positive or negative difference between a franchise-tagged players’ season before and after the tag occurred. We then found the average approximate value per player of the last three franchise tag classes combined.

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How Franchise Tagged Players Perform After Deals

Franchise Tag Class # of Players Franchise Tagged  Total Approximate Value (YoY change) Average Approximate Value (YoY change)
2023 6-12-2.0 per player
2022 8-2-0.25 per player
2021 10-6-0.60 per player
3-Year Span 24-20-0.83 per player

Kansas sports betting apps list San Francisco as the Super Bowl favorite at +500, followed by the Chiefs at +650.

Can Sneed Snap Franchise Tag Woes?

Over the past three classes of franchise-tagged players, a theme has emerged that few involved would like to see, as those athletes have seen a drop in average approximate value of .83 AV over the last three years.

Of the 24 players who have been tagged between 2021 and 2023, the total lost AV was -20, with the 2023 class seeing the largest decline (-12 AV across six players). The 2022 class had the smallest drop-off (-2 AV across eight players).

Of the franchise tag success stories, the best shining star was Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who had a +7 year-over-year improvement in AV (12 to 19 AV) between 2022 and 2023, with the former Heisman winner taking home his second NFL MVP trophy along the way. FanDuel Kansas lists Jackson as +1200 to win the NFL MVP Award. Patrick Mahomes has the best odds at +650.

Throw in Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott’s +8 AV improvement, from 6 AV in 2020 to 14 AV in 2021, and you have a picture of the successes that can come after a player’s tagged.  

For Sneed and the Chiefs, the hope is both sides can come out on the winning end of the one-year compromise that is the NFL’s franchise tag. Looking forward, Spotrac estimates Sneed’s play in KC warrants a $16.3 million-per-year deal, with an estimate of four years and $65.3 million for the veteran defensive back when the two sides meet again to hammer out a long-term deal. BetMGM Kansas has Snead at +8000 odds to win Associated Press defensive player of the year next season.

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Author

Christopher Boan

Christopher Boan is a lead writer at BetKansas.com specializing in covering state issues. He covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years.

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