Key Takeaways:
- Patrick Mahomes' MVP odds are +550 at DraftKings Sportsbook, with most odds installed somewhere between +425 to +550 at other books.
- Using implied probability, Mahomes has a 15.4% chance to win NFL Most Valuable Player Award for the 2023-24 season.
- If Mahomes repeats as MVP this year, he'll become the seventh player in NFL history to win MVP three or more times.
Patrick Mahomes has already won MVP twice in his five-year run as a starter for the Kansas City Chiefs. So naturally, he enters this year with a bit of a perceived edge over most quarterbacks. Despite a Week 1 loss, Mahomes' odds to win MVP remain among the best in the league alongside Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.
What Are Patrick Mahomes' MVP Odds Today?
Mahomes' odds to win MVP are at or right around +550, depending on the sportsbook. Here's a breakdown of his MVP odds per book:
Odds can certainly change, so it's worth checking in on them frequently to take advantage of the best deals. As far as Mahomes goes, unless he has a setback or an injury of some sort, expect his MVP odds to remain among the shortest in the NFL. The health of TE Travis Kelce may also impact Mahomes' MVP odds, though Kelce returned to the team in Week 2 and scored a touchdown in both Weeks 2 and 3.
For those interested in a deeper dive on odds for Mahomes' team, check out our Chiefs playoff chances and Chiefs Super Bowl odds pages.
Patrick Mahomes' Week-by-Week MVP Odds
Throughout the 2023 NFL season, we will provide a chart showing the week-by-week progression (or regression) of Mahomes' MVP odds. Check back once the season begins to see how his odds fluctuate. Below are odds from DraftKings.
Latest Kansas City Chiefs Updates Impacting Patrick Mahomes' Odds for MVP
After winning MVP, Super Bowl LVII and Super Bowl MVP all in one season, Mahomes will try to do it all again in 2023. The Chiefs have made a handful of moves during the offseason that could affect Mahomes' chances of winning MVP. Here are a few key developments:
- 📆 September 24: The Chiefs rout the Bears 41-10 as Mahomes drops 272 yards and three touchdowns in front of a Kansas City crowd that included pop star Taylor Swift.
- 📆 September 17: The Kansas City Chiefs capture their first win of the season against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Mahomes earned 305 yards and two touchdowns, and also threw a pick.
- 📆 September 7: The Chiefs lose 20-21 in the team's season opener against the Detroit Lions. In that game, Mahomes completed just 53.8% of passes for 226 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
- 📆 September 5: Chiefs All-Pro TE Travis Kelce suffered a knee injury at practice that kept him from playing in the season opener.
- 📆 August 21: Chiefs starting RB Isiah Pacheco returns to full participation and is cleared for contact after being limited through the duration of training camp, rehabbing after shoulder and hand surgeries earlier this offseason.
- 📆 July 23: Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney, often touted as the team's WR1, leaves training camp practice with a knee injury, later revealed to be a torn meniscus.
- 📆 May 4: The Chiefs added offensive tackle Donovan Smith to their offensive line on a one-year deal.
- 📆 April 27-29: Kansas City added seven players in the 2023 NFL Draft, including SMU receiver Rashee Rice in the second round. Rice could be a potential weapon for Mahomes in 2023.
- 📆 April 19: Quarterback Blaine Gabbert joined the Chiefs to back up Mahomes.
- 📆 April 7: The Chiefs added former New York Giants wideout Richie James to their receiving corps.
- 📆 March 16: The Chiefs replaced left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. with former Jacksonville Jaguars tackle Jawaan Taylor.
- 📆 February 24: The Chiefs promoted quarterbacks coach Matt Nagy to offensive coordinator. Nagy previously held the position with the team from 2016-2017 and served as head coach for the Chicago Bears from 2018-2021.
- 📆 February 18: Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy took a job with the Washington Commanders to be their new offensive coordinator and assistant head coach.
- 📆 February 12: The Chiefs defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl 57, winning their second title in four years. Mahomes won Super Bowl MVP for the second time in his career.
- 📆 February 9: Mahomes was named NFL MVP for the second time in his career.
Sportsbooks Available To Bet on Patrick Mahomes’ MVP Odds
All major sportsbooks in the U.S. such as BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars, FanDuel and DraftKings should have betting odds available for NFL MVP as long as the state they're in allows wagers on awards decided by voters.
Sports bettors in the state of Kansas can place bets now for Mahomes (or any other player with available odds) to win NFL MVP as long as they're located in the state and are 21 years of age or older. Those in the nearby state of Missouri will need to travel over to Kansas (or another state with legal sports betting, like Illinois or Iowa) to place bets on the MVP winner.
Has Patrick Mahomes Ever Won An NFL MVP?
Patrick Mahomes has won two NFL MVP awards throughout his six-year career (five years as a starter for the Chiefs). Mahomes won MVP in 2018 and 2022. He has also won Super Bowl MVP twice – in 2019 (Super Bowl LIV) and 2022 (Super Bowl LVII).
Mahomes' 2022 MVP Season
Mahomes led the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns in 2022, and led the Chiefs to an eventual Super Bowl title.
- Passing yards: 5,250
- Passing touchdowns: 41
- Interceptions: 12
- Completion percentage: 67.1%
- Team regular season record: 14-3
Mahomes' 2018 MVP Season
In Mahomes' first year as an NFL starter, he became the third player in history to throw for 50 touchdowns in the regular season. The only other players to do so were Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.
- Passing yards: 5,097
- Passing touchdowns: 50
- Interceptions: 12
- Completion percentage: 66%
- Team regular season record: 12-4
What Were Patrick Mahomes’ MVP Odds The Years He Won?
Those smart enough to place wagers on Mahomes to win MVP in 2018 earned a hefty payout – Mahomes' preseason MVP odds in 2018 were +3525, meaning that betting $100 would have paid out $3,525 plus $100 back.
Understandably, Mahomes' 2022 odds to win MVP were much shorter at +800. Still, a $100 bet earned $800, so still not a bad haul.
Patrick Mahomes’ Odds To Win MVP Every Year Since 2017
A year-by-year breakdown of Mahomes' MVP odds shows that he has been in the running every other year since 2018 despite being the preseason favorite every year since 2019.
Source: sportsoddshistory.com, with odds from more than one betting site.
If the current trend continues, Mahomes won't receive any MVP votes in 2023. That seems unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility.
Other Patrick Mahomes Odds and Props To Bet On In 2023
Those not satisfied with just betting on the MVP race can also place bets on a myriad of player props. Mahomes has plenty available, with more to be introduced once the regular season approaches.
Awards
Mahomes' odds to win Offensive Player of the Year have fluctuated anywhere from +2500 to +3500 depending on the book, though at the conclusion of Week 3, most books have him at +3500. Those long odds aren't a knock on his talent, but rather because that award generally goes to running backs or receivers. That said, Mahomes did win OPOY in 2018 during his first MVP season.
Passing Yards
Ahead of the 2023 NFL season, BetMGM had Mahomes' over/under total passing yards set at 4,675.5, while DraftKings had it set at 4,800.5. It's worth noting that Mahomes has thrown under 4,700 yards just once in his career – in 2019 – and he missed two games that year due to injury. Needless to say, the overs are a bit more tantalizing with Mahomes.
Following the conclusion of Week 1, Mahomes has totaled 226 passing yards, meaning he'll need to average at least 286 passing yards per game in order to hit the overs for both of these books. Bettors can still place bets on Mahomes to earn the most regular season passing yards in the NFL at +330 on DraftKings.
Passing Touchdowns
Ahead of the 2022 NFL season, BetMGM and DraftKings both listed Mahomes' over/under total passing TDs at 36.5. Caesars has his at 37.5. Mahomes' career passing TD numbers from 2018 to 2022 are 50, 26, 38, 37 and 41.
Based on his two passing touchdowns against the Lions to open the season, he'd be just short of his passing total if he maintained that over 17 regular season games. However, 3+ touchdown games are a frequent enough occurrence that the over remains likely to hit, especially if TE Travis Kelce returns to the mix sooner rather than later.
Game Props
Bettors can place wagers on various props for each game. Whether it's Mahomes' over/under total passing yards, Mahomes to score a touchdown, or even Mahomes to throw an interception, there is so much variety for bettors to test their luck.
Patrick Mahomes MVP Odds FAQs
Patrick Mahomes' current MVP odds sit around +550 with all major sportsbooks. These are generally the second-shortest odds in the NFL, with books having Mahomes' odds slightly behind Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.
Yes, Patrick Mahomes has won the NFL MVP Award twice as the starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs. He won the regular season award in 2018 and 2022.
Patrick Mahomes has won two NFL MVP Awards in his career – once in 2018 and again in 2022.
Patrick Mahomes won NFL MVP in 2018 and 2022. He also won Super Bowl MVP in 2019 and 2022, and won Offensive Player of the Year in 2018.
Patrick Mahomes was a long shot to win MVP in 2018 at +3525 preseason odds. In 2022, Mahomes' MVP odds were +800.
Patrick Mahomes has never finshed second in MVP voting, but he has finished first twice (in 2018 and 2022) and third once (in 2020).
Author
Kate Magdziuk is an NFL betting expert for BetKansas.com, focusing on the Kansas City Chiefs. She's written for NBC Sports Rotoworld, DraftKings Nation, Gaming Society, and 4for4 Fantasy Football. She'll track the Chiefs' playoff chances and Super Bowl odds, where she'll use her expertise in fantasy football and sports betting to deliver the most up-to-date information available for KS bettors.
