Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances May 2023: Tracking the Chiefs Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Nate Hamilton
Patrick Mahomes throws the ball

Key Takeaways:

  • The Chiefs playoff chances are 79%, which are among the best chances of any team in the league.
  • Kansas City has a 21% chance to miss the playoffs, the lowest chance among AFC West teams.
  • The Chiefs, who won Super Bowl 57, have the best chances to win Super Bowl 58 in the NFL at 13.3%.

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 57, winning their second Super Bowl in four years. Naturally, the Chiefs are the top favorite to win Super Bowl 58 with 2022 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes leading the way at quarterback.

This season, I plan to track the Chiefs playoff chances daily and analyze the team's playoff picture and potential postseason scenarios. Can the Chiefs make the playoffs for the ninth-straight season?

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What are the Chiefs Playoff Chances?

The Chiefs playoff chances are 79%, some of the best chances in the league. Their chances to miss the playoffs are just 21%.

In the table below, I've noted Kansas City's playoff chances, as well as the team's chances to win the Super Bowl, the AFC and the AFC West.

⭐ Chiefs Playoff Chances79% Chance
β›” Chiefs Miss Playoffs21% Chance
πŸ‘‘ Chiefs Win Super Bowl13.3% Chance
πŸ† Chiefs Win AFC22.2% Chance
πŸ”₯ Chiefs Win AFC West61.5% Chance
πŸ—½ New York Times Postseason SimulatorNot Available Yet
🏈 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)6.4 FPI
βœ… Data Verified by ExpertMay 24, 2023

The Chiefs playoff chances are calculated by converting their latest postseason odds from DraftKings into implied probability. This is a percentage which shows the team's chances to make the playoffs. I've also removed the house edge from the Chiefs playoff odds to represent a more accurate chance. The implied probabilities above for the Super Bowl, AFC and AFC West are based on odds from BetMGM.

We will also include data from top media sources such as the New York Times Postseason Simulator and ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), the latter of which considers a team’s expected point margin against an average opponent on a neutral field. The Chiefs FPI for 2023 is the highest among all NFL teams.

Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates May 2023

After winning Super Bowl 57, the Chiefs have made a handful of moves as they prepare for the long offseason. Stay up to date with the latest Chiefs news and how it impacts Kansas City’s playoff chances.

  • πŸ“† May 4: The Chiefs added offensive tackle Donovan Smith to their offensive line on a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“† May 2: Running back Jerick McKinnon re-joined K.C. on a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“† April 27-29: Kansas City added seven players in the 2023 NFL Draft, including Kansas State edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah, SMU receiver Rashee Rice and Oklahoma offensive tackle Wanya Morris.
  • πŸ“† April 19: Quarterback Blaine Gabbert joined the Chiefs to back up superstar Patrick Mahomes.
  • πŸ“† April 7: The Chiefs added former New York Giants wideout Richie James to their receiving corps.
  • πŸ“† March 21: Kansas City picked up former Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Drue Tranquill.
  • πŸ“† March 16: The Chiefs replaced left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. with former Jacksonville Jaguars tackle Jawaan Taylor, and also signed former San Francisco 49ers defensive end Charles Omenihu.
  • πŸ“† March 7: Defensive end Frank Clark was released by the Chiefs, ending his four-year stint in Kansas City.
  • πŸ“† February 24: The Chiefs promoted quarterbacks coach Matt Nagy to offensive coordinator. Nagy previously held the position with the team from 2016-2017 and served as head coach for the Chicago Bears from 2018-2021.
  • πŸ“† February 18: Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy took a job with the Washington Commanders to be their new offensive coordinator and assistant head coach.
  • πŸ“† February 12: The Chiefs defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl 57, winning their second title in four years.

Make sure to bookmark this page to stay up to date with Chiefs breaking news and developments that impact the team’s playoff chances.

Where Can I Bet on the Chiefs to Make the Playoffs?

You can currently bet on the Chiefs to make the playoffs at DraftKings Kansas and FanDuel Kansas as long as you are 21+ and within state lines of a state that offers legal sports betting. More major sportsbooks should follow with odds of their own.

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Looking Ahead: Chiefs Playoff Picture

The Chiefs playoff picture for 2023 looks bright as the team comes off winning Super Bowl LVII. Kansas City filled some roster holes in free agency and the NFL Draft, preparing the team to compete for yet another AFC West victory.

Barring a drastic change such as injuries or a change in personnel, there’s a good chance the Chiefs earn a 12-5 record or better in 2023 and make the playoffs, either winning the AFC West or taking a top wild-card spot in the process.

Do the Chiefs Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Chiefs have a good chance to make the playoffs in 2023. Kansas City has made it to the postseason in nine of 10 seasons with Andy Reid as head coach, while also making it every year with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback. In fact, the team has made it to the AFC Championship Game every season with Mahomes as well.

Are the Chiefs Out of Playoffs?

No, the Chiefs are not out of playoffs because the 2023 season hasn’t started. No team is out of the playoffs just yet. While the season hasn’t started, the Chiefs are heavily expected to make the playoffs again in 2023 after winning Super Bowl 57.

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Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs FAQs


Wes is an editor and writer for BetKansas.com. Based out of the Kansas City area, Wes has covered sports professionally since 2015 with a strong emphasis on sports betting and the NFL, though he's also covered pro wrestling, UFC, college sports and more.

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