Chiefs Playoff Chances & Super Bowl Odds: Updated Week 4

Chiefs Playoff Chances & Super Bowl Odds: Updated Week 4
By Nate Hamilton
Fact Checked by Matthew Asher

The upset of the season took place on Week 3 in Indianapolis as the Colts shocked the world and defeated the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs scored just 17 points against the Colts and suffered their first loss of 2022. With that, the Chiefs move to 2-1 through three weeks. 

The bookmakers appear to be chalking this up to a small hiccup as the Chiefs playoff chances were minimally impacted. Kansas City will look to bounce back against the Buccaneers in Week 4.

Latest Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances

Heading into Week 4 of the 2022-23 NFL season, the Chiefs playoff chances are 83.3%. Surprisingly, just a 4% drop in probability after the shocking loss to the Colts. According to sportsbooks in Kansas, the Chiefs odds to make the playoffs are now -500.

⭐ Chiefs Playoff Chances83.3% Chance
πŸ† Postseason Odds-500 (BetMGM)
πŸ“ˆ Projected Wins11.5 Games
βœ… Last VerifiedSeptember 26

For context, a bettor would need to bet $500 today on the Chiefs to make the playoffs in order to win $100, a key indicator sportsbooks are confident Kansas City will reach the postseason following the first three weeks of action.

The Kansas City Chiefs began their 2022 season 2-0 with impressive wins over two of the best teams in the NFL. Unfortunately, Kansas City suffered their first loss of the season in a matchup that should have been a lock to win bringing their record to 2-1. 

Heading into Week 4, the Chiefs will take on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are also coming off a low-scoring loss against the Green Bay Packers. Both offenses will want to rebound which could make for a high-scoring affair on Sunday Night Football. Worth noting, Patrick Mahomes MVP odds are also among the best in the league. Mahomes falls from second-best odds behind Josh Allen to third-best. Philadelphia Eagles quarterback, Jalen Hurts (+600) moves ahead of Patrick Mahomes (+700).

Chiefs Playoff Chances Key Developments: Week 4

  • πŸ“† Week 3 (Sept. 26): The Chiefs were handed their first loss against the Indianapolis Colts. It's very early in the 2022 season, but this game could hold up as the upset of the year.
  • πŸ“† Week 2 (Sept. 16): The Chiefs were victorious on Thursday Night Football in a comeback win against AFC West opponent, Los Angles Chargers. The win has already improved their Super Bowl odds to +700, but we will have to wait until the other teams play their Week 2 games before new numbers roll in regarding their playoff chances.
  • πŸ“† Week 1 (Sept. 12): Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs went off on the Arizona Cardinals in a 44-21 win in Week 1. This led to the Chiefs' Super Bowl and playoff odds both improving. The 44 points by the Chiefs were the most scored by any team in Week 1.

Can I Bet on the Chiefs to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, you can bet on the Chiefs to make the playoffs with most sports betting sites in Kansas but with their chances currently so high, your return on the bet will be low. If you are going to bet on Kansas City to make the postseason, we recommend using the BetMGM Kansas bonus code, which will provide a generous bonus to use along with your bet.

Chiefs Super Bowl Odds 2022-23

You will find the Chiefs among the top NFL teams in just about every optimistic projection this season and Super Bowl LVII odds are no exception. After Week 3, the Chiefs odds to win the Super Bowl are +750, which places KC with the second-best odds in the league. 

Week 4 Odds+750
Week 3 Odds+700
Week 2 Odds+750
Week 1 Odds+1000
Preseason Odds+950
Opening Odds+750

That represents a sizable jump over their final preseason odds, which had the Chiefs at +1000 and tied for the third-best mark in the league. The loss to the underdog Colts brought their odds down a bit, but the Chiefs still hold the second-best odds in the NFL. 

Although the Chiefs find themselves in the toughest division in the NFL, you can bet the odds of the AFC representative in Super Bowl LVII being a team from the AFC West are favorable. The Chiefs have excellent leadership and talent and have proven they are not to be counted out as Super Bowl contenders.

Where Can I Bet on the Chiefs to Win the Super Bowl?

Want to place bets on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl? The top Kansas sportsbooks offer bettors this market but with varying odds, which means there is value in shopping around. We recommend checking a few betting apps before placing a futures bet on the Chiefs this year.

How Many Games Will The Chiefs Win? Kansas City Chiefs Win Total 2022

The Chiefs win total is set at 11.5 wins heading into Week 4. Compared to the rest of the league, the Chiefs remain among the top teams in projected win totals. Kansas City is listed at -110 to go over 11.5 wins and -110 to go under, which essentially means the books expect the Chiefs win total could go either way to finish with fewer than 12 or more than 12 wins this season.

πŸ“Έ Denny Medley - USA TODAY SPORTS: Chiefs wide receiver Justin Watson (84) runs the ball for a touchdown ahead of Los Angeles Chargers cornerback J.C. Jackson (27) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri on September 15, 2022.

One angle that can often be overlooked when betting win totals is a team’s strength of schedule. According to multiple sources, the Chiefs are currently tied for the 5th hardest schedule this season based on forecasted win totals. Some platforms even have them listed dead last, having the hardest schedule of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022-23 season.

The Kansas City Chiefs will play the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, and Los Angeles Chargers each twice as they share the same division. This is no easy feat for any team, regardless of how good the Chiefs are.

Chiefs Playoff Chances FAQs



Nate Hamilton
Football Betting Analyst

Nate Hamilton is a senior football betting analyst for He spends his time immersed in analytics, stats, and betting lines including a special focus on all things Kansas and Missouri football related. Nate has been a notable voice in the world of NFL, and football in general, for over a decade producing valuable content for several leading sports media outlets around the country.

Scroll to top