Betting Experts Tracking the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds: Week 4

Fact Checked by Wes Roesch
Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes hold Lombardi Trophy

Key Takeaways:

  • πŸ“Š The Chiefs' Super Bowl odds are +650 per DraftKings, the second-shortest odds in the NFL. Their odds shortened following their Week 3 win over the Bears.
  • πŸ† Using implied probability, Kansas City has a 13.3% chance to win Super Bowl 58 in 2024.
  • πŸ“ˆ The Chiefs are favored to win the AFC at +300 ahead of Week 4, an implied 25% chance.

After losing steam to the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl 58 odds race following a Week 1 loss, the Chiefs are slowly regaining their steam following back-to-back wins. Since Week 1, the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds have fluctuated in the +700 range, but they've finally made their way back to the +600's following back-to-back wins.

Though the 49ers are currently installed as the odds favorites to win Super Bowl 58 on most major sportsbooks, the Chiefs and Eagles are not far behind. The team has seen an uptick in offensive yardage production in each of the two games since the season started, and with the strengths of the defense showing out and an easy upcoming schedule, the Chiefs should continue to see the odds shift in their favor.

How will these storylines affect the Chiefs odds to win Super Bowl LVIII? We'll be following along all season until we have an answer. Be sure to bookmark this page, as I'll be updating and analyzing the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds every day through the 2023 NFL season leading up to until Super Bowl 58 (or until they're eliminated from playoff contention β€” whichever comes first).

Chiefs Super Bowl 58 Odds: September 29, 2023

The Chiefs Super Bowl odds are +650 at DraftKings Sportsbook Kansas following their Week 3 win over the Chicago Bears. Most sportsbooks now have the San Francisco 49ers installed as the odds-favorite to win Super Bowl 58. Below you can find the Chiefs' odds to win the Super Bowl, AFC and AFC West, plus the team's odds to make or miss the playoffs via DraftKings.

πŸ‘‘ Odds to Win Super Bowl 58+650
πŸ† Odds to Win AFC+300
⭐ Odds to Win AFC West-300
πŸ”₯ Odds to Make Playoffs-550
β›” Odds to Miss Playoffs+400

Following their Week 2 win over the Jaguars, the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds remained steady across Kansas sportsbooks with most books now favoring the 49ers to win the Big Game. The 49ers' odds to win Super Bowl 58 following Week 3 are at +600, with the Chiefs (+650), Eagles (+700), and Cowboys (+1000) trailing closely behind. The Chiefs also saw a favorable shift in their odds to with the AFC, now down to +300 from +330 following their Week 3 win.

In addition to the favorable shifts in their odds to win Super Bowl 58 and the AFC Championship, the Chiefs also saw a favorable shift in their odds of winning the AFC West, now even heavier favorites at -300. Kansas City sits as the only team in the division above .500, with the Raiders and Broncos both at 1-2 and the Broncos currently winless at 0-3.

If you're interested in a closer look at the Chiefs' playoff chances, I have a separate article which tracks their chances and breaks down the team's postseason picture following the latest news.

Each week, I will track the Chiefs' Super Bowl 2024 odds, plus their odds to win their conference and division. Make sure to bookmark this page to stay updated on the Chiefs' latest odds.

Chiefs Super Bowl Odds vs. AFC West

The Chiefs have the best odds in the AFC West to repeat as Super Bowl champions at +650 odds on DraftKings, without much competition from other teams within the AFC West. The Los Angeles Chargers have had the second-shortest odds in the division to win Super Bowl LVIII, with odds at +3000 after securing their first win of the season in Week 3, ranking 13th among NFL teams.

Further out of consideration are the Las Vegas Raiders at +10000 (25th among NFL teams) and the winless Denver Broncos at +13000 (up from +7000 ahead of Week 3) odds to win the big game (26th).

Chiefs Week-by-Week Super Bowl Odds

Throughout the season, we'll be updating the following chart to show the week-by-week fluctuations in the Kansas City Chiefs' odds to win Super Bowl LVIII. Check back once the season starts to see the team's progression.

↔️ Preseason+600 (14.29% chance)
⬇️ After Week 1+700 (12.5% chance)
↔️ After Week 2+700 (12.5% chance)
⬆️ After Week 3+650 (13.3% chance)

Throughout the 2023 offseason, the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds remained steady around +600 to +700 with minimal fluctuations barring unexpected news. However, following the Chiefs' Week 1 loss to the Detroit Lions, the San Francisco 49ers took over as the odds-favorite to win Super Bowl 58.

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Latest Updates Impacting Chiefs Odds to Win Super Bowl 58

The Chiefs' odds to win the Super Bowl may shift a bit throughout the 2023 NFL season, but they've remained quite stable throughout the offseason, ranging from around +600 to +650. I'll be tracking all team updates here and explaining how latest news can impact K.C.'s odds to win SB LVIII.

  • πŸ“† September 24: The Chiefs execute a 41-10 win over the Bears, improving their Super Bowl odds from +700 to +650 following the win. The Raiders and Broncos both incurred losses, with the Chargers as the only other AFC West team to manage a win.
  • πŸ“† September 17: All-Pros TE Travis Kelce and DT Chris Jones return to play in Week 2 after missing Week 1. The Chiefs pull out a 17-9 win over the Jaguars.
  • πŸ“† September 11: All-Pro DT Chris Jones reached a new one-year deal with the Chiefs to increase his pay for the 2023 season and end his holdout with the team.
  • πŸ“† September 10: Following the conclusion of Week 1's Sunday games, the 49ers take over as odds-favorites to win Super Bowl 58 at +650, followed closely by the Chiefs and Eagles at +700.
  • πŸ“† September 7: The Chiefs lose 20-21 to the Lions to open up the 2023 season. Week 1 marked the first time since 2014 that TE Travis Kelce had missed a game due to injury. Following the loss, the Chiefs Super Bowl odds fall to +700, tied with the Eagles for the second-best odds to win Super Bowl LVIII.
  • πŸ“† September 5: Chiefs HC Andy Reid announces that TE Travis Kelce suffered a hyperextended knee at Monday's practice leading up to Week 1. The Chiefs are on a short week, playing the NFL kickoff game against the Lions on Thursday Night Football. Reid also noted that there's been no movement in contact talks with Chris Jones.
  • πŸ“† August 22: Chiefs DT Chris Jones replies to a fan on his X (Twitter) account, stating he could end his holdout in Week 8 of the 2023 season, meaning the team would be without their top defender for nearly half the season if the two sides do not come to an agreement.
  • πŸ“† August 17: The Kansas City Chiefs' 2023 training camp session ends, with defensive tackle Chris Jones still yet to report to the team amid a contract dispute.
  • πŸ“† May 11: The NFL announced that the Chiefs will kick off the 2023 season against the Detroit Lions. The Chiefs opened as -6.5-point favorites against Detroit per BetMGM.
  • πŸ“† April 27-29: Kansas City added seven players in the 2023 NFL Draft, including Kansas State edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah and SMU receiver Rashee Rice. Following the draft, K.C. remains the NFL's top dog in terms of Super Bowl odds.
  • πŸ“† March 16: The Chiefs replaced left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. with former Jacksonville Jaguars tackle Jawaan Taylor. Despite the big change, the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds didn't shift.
  • πŸ“† February 13: Sportsbooks in Ohio released opening Super Bowl 58 odds following the end of the 2022-23 season. The Chiefs opened around +650 to +550.

Be sure to bookmark this page to stay updated on the latest news impacting the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds.

Chiefs Schedule and Betting Lines

πŸ“… Week 1 vs. Detroit LionsChiefs (0-1) lose 21-20
πŸ“… Week 2 at Jacksonville JaguarsChiefs (1-1) win 17-9
πŸ“… Week 3 vs. Chicago BearsChiefs (2-1) win 41-10
πŸ“… Week 4 at New York JetsChiefs -9.5, ML -500
πŸ“… Week 5 at Minnesota VikingsChiefs -6, ML -285
πŸ“… Week 6 vs. Denver BroncosChiefs -7, ML -325
πŸ“… Week 7 vs. Los Angeles ChargersChiefs -5.5, ML -218
πŸ“… Week 8 at Denver BroncosChiefs -3.5, ML -175
πŸ“… Week 9 vs. Miami DolphinsChiefs -4.5, ML -205
πŸ“… Week 10BYE
πŸ“… Week 11 vs. Philadelphia EaglesChiefs -3, ML -148
πŸ“… Week 12 at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs -5, ML -205
πŸ“… Week 13 at Green Bay PackersChiefs -5.5, ML -218
πŸ“… Week 14 vs. Buffalo BillsChiefs -3.5, ML -175
πŸ“… Week 15 at New England PatriotsChiefs -5.5, ML -218
πŸ“… Week 16 vs. Las Vegas RaidersChiefs -8.5, ML -395
πŸ“… Week 17 vs. Cincinnati BengalsChiefs -3, ML -155
πŸ“… Week 18 at Los Angeles ChargersChiefs -2, ML -125
βœ… Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 29, 2023

Following their Week 3 stomping of the Chicago Bears, the Chiefs sit at 2-1 to lead the AFC West and have an absolute dream of a schedule coming up. Over the next five weeks, they'll face teams with a collective 2-10 record, including a matchup against the 0-3 Vikings and two against the 0-3 Broncos. This will prove to be a solid opportunity to pad the win column prior to several more difficult matchups following their Week 10 bye.

Kansas City will take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11, a Monday night game that will feature a rematch of Super Bowl LVII. Matchups against the Bills and Bengals will also take place in the bottom half of Kansas City's schedule – those squads have been the team's biggest rivals in the AFC for the past few years and are surely the Chiefs' biggest threats toward repeating as Super Bowl champions. The Bengals will be a true wild card here, with the outcome of the matchup likely tied, in part, to the health of Joe Burrow, who's been managing a calf injury.

Key Contributors Toward Chiefs Super Bowl Odds

At the center of the Chiefs' dominance is QB Patrick Mahomes, who is now sitting behind Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa with second-best odds in the league to win 2023-24 NFL MVP at +550. After his 272 passing yard, three passing touchdown performance in Week 3, Mahomes' odds improved from +700 in the previous week. Tagovailoa and the rest of the Dolphins offense just executed a whopping 70 point win over the Broncos, contributing to more favorable odds shifts to win MVP, now at +380.

If Mahomes were to win the award, he'd join Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre as the only two players in NFL history to win three MVP awards by their age-28 season. Mahomes is coming off a career-high 5,251 passing yards, completing 67.1% of passes β€” most of them going to his favorite target, TE Travis Kelce, who has +5000 odds to become the first tight end in NFL history to win Offensive Player of the Year. Rookie WR Rashee Rice, selected in the second round of the draft, has his odds at +5000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at the completion of Week 3. So far this season, he's led Chiefs wide receiver room in both targets and receptions 14 targets and 10 receptions, though his efficiency isn't yet there, ranking third among the receivers with 108 receiving yards.

DT Chris Jones is the Chiefs' cornerstone on defense, who returned to the team in Week 2 following a holdout that lasted for the entirety of the offseason through Week 1 of the NFL season. Since returning to play in Week 2, his odds to win Defensive Player of the Year have remained steady at +3500. Though he's notched 2.5 sacks since returning, high-end performances from Micah Parsons, T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett have forced them into a decent lead. Rookie DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, drafted in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, has odds to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at +3500, tied for 13th among rookie defenders. Through three games this season, he's still seeking his first start, though he's tallied a forced fumble, seven tackles, and 0.5 sacks and two quarterback hits in the the limited opportunities he has had.

Despite his success as head coach, Andy Reid, who is top-five all-time in coaching wins, hasn't seen much odds movement to win NFL Coach of the Year in 2023-24, hanging steady at +5000. However, after previously ranking last in the league among head coaches in odds to win the award, Reid now ranks 23rd in the league.

Where Can I Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to Win the Super Bowl?

You can bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at most major sportsbooks, including BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and more. You must be 21+ and within state lines of a state that has legal sports betting in order to place a bet on Kansas City to win the Super Bowl.

Chiefs Super Bowl LVIII Outlook and Predictions

After a disappointing Week 1 loss to the Detroit Lions, the Kansas City Chiefs have been dethroned by the San Francisco 49ers as the new odds-favorite to repeat as Super Bowl champions. The 49ers' Super Bowl 58 odds have improved to lead the field at +650, while the Chiefs and Eagles each have odds at +700, followed by the Cowboys at +900.

Even despite the Week 1 loss, the Chiefs should remain among the top favorites to win the Super Bowl in 2024, unless they continue to struggle offensively amidst the injury to All-Pro TE Travis Kelce. It remains to be seen when he will return, having suffered a deep bone bruise, though thankfully, it seems he and the Chiefs avoided the worst-case scenario. Also helping their cause will be the return of All-Pro DT Chris Jones, who missed Week 1 with an ongoing contract dispute, officially reaching an agreement on a new one-year deal on Monday, Sept. 11 with the plan to report back to the team.

Incredibly, Mahomes has yet to play a single postseason game on the road, a testament to the force this team has been in the AFC since his debut as a starter in 2018. That's been thanks, in large part, to their dominance in the conference yielding high playoff seeding, having finished as the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in each of the past five seasons.

Chiefs Super Bowl History

After experiencing a 50-year drought following a Super Bowl IV win in 1969-70, the Chiefs have appeared in three of the last four Super Bowls. Kansas City won two of those Super Bowl appearances, bringing the team's total Lombardi victories to three in franchise history. Below, I brief the Chiefs' history in the Super Bowl, including answering the most frequently asked questions.

Have the Chiefs Ever Won the Super Bowl?

Yes, the Chiefs have won the Super Bowl three times. The Chiefs won Super Bowl 4 (1969), Super Bowl 54 (2019) and Super Bowl 57 (2022).

How Many Super Bowls Have the Kansas City Chiefs Won?

The Chiefs have won three Super Bowls, a feat that only nine other NFL teams have accomplished. Kansas City’s first Super Bowl win came during the 1969-70 season when they beat the Minnesota Vikings 23-7 in Super Bowl IV. Fast forward 50 years later, the Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV in 2019, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 31-20. And, of course, the Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII in 2022, beating the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35.

Kansas City is in the NFL's top 10 in Super Bowl wins, joining the New England Patriots (6), Pittsburgh Steelers (6), Dallas Cowboys (5), San Francisco 49ers (5), Green Bay Packers (4), New York Giants (4), Washington Commanders (3), and AFC West rivals Denver Broncos (3) and Las Vegas Raiders (3).

Which Years Did the Chiefs Go to the Super Bowl?

  • 1966-67: Chiefs lost Super Bowl I to the Green Bay Packers 35-10
  • 1969-70: Chiefs won Super Bowl IV vs. the Minnesota Vikings 23-7
  • 2019-20: Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV vs. the San Francisco 49ers 31-20
  • 2020-21: Chiefs lost Super Bowl LV to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-9
  • 2022-23: Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII vs. the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35

How Many Times Have the Chiefs Been to the AFC Championship Game?

The Chiefs have appeared in eight AFC Championship games, winning five of them. They made it in 1966 (win), 1969 (win), 1993 (loss), 2018 (loss), 2019 (win), 2020 (win), 2021 (loss) and 2022 (win). Kansas City has also hosted the last five AFC Championship games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – an NFL record.

Chiefs Preseason Super Bowl Odds Every Year Since 2000

For context on this year's preseason odds, I built this table detailing the Chiefs' odds to win the Super Bowl every year since 2000.

πŸ“† 2022-2023Preseason Odds = +1000
πŸ“† 2021-2022Preseason Odds = +450
πŸ“† 2020-2021Preseason Odds = +450
πŸ“† 2019-2020Preseason Odds = +600
πŸ“† 2018-2019Preseason Odds = +3000
πŸ“† 2017-2018Preseason Odds = +2500
πŸ“† 2016-2017Preseason Odds = +2000
πŸ“† 2015-2016Preseason Odds = +3000
πŸ“† 2014-2015Preseason Odds = +5000
πŸ“† 2013-2014Preseason Odds = +5000
πŸ“† 2012-2013Preseason Odds = +5000
πŸ“† 2011-2012Preseason Odds = +5000
πŸ“† 2010-2011Preseason Odds = +12500
πŸ“† 2009-2010Preseason Odds = +8000
πŸ“† 2008-2009Preseason Odds = +12500
πŸ“† 2007-2008Preseason Odds = +6000
πŸ“† 2006-2007Preseason Odds = +2000
πŸ“† 2005-2006Preseason Odds = +2000
πŸ“† 2004-2005Preseason Odds = +1200
πŸ“† 2003-2004Preseason Odds = +2500
πŸ“† 2002-2003Preseason Odds = +5000
πŸ“† 2001-2002Preseason Odds = +2200
πŸ“† 2000-2001Preseason Odds = +5000

The Chiefs preseason odds are a bit longer than when they headed into the 2020 and 2021 seasons, but shorter than this point in time last year. Barring any drastic moves or injuries, it seems likely that the Chiefs preseason Super Bowl odds will remain the highest in the NFL.

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Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl FAQs


Kate Magdziuk is an NFL betting expert for, focusing on the Kansas City Chiefs. She's written for NBC Sports Rotoworld, DraftKings Nation, Gaming Society, and 4for4 Fantasy Football. She'll track the Chiefs' playoff chances and Super Bowl odds, where she'll use her expertise in fantasy football and sports betting to deliver the most up-to-date information available for KS bettors.

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